NYSE:MOS
MOSAIC CO
A major global fertilizer producer utilizing vast phosphate rock reserves to supply critical nutrient solutions for agriculture across diverse international markets.
Key Metrics
Investment Thesis
Bull Case
Investors may view MOS as an attractive play on global food security, given the company's dominant market share in phosphate nutrients and its ability to capitalize on long-term population-driven demand for fertilizers. The stock offers exposure to a cyclical recovery if fertilizer prices stabilize at higher levels, supported by the company's low-cost production profile and robust cash flow generation of $824.8M.
Bear Case
The stock faces headwinds from shrinking revenue trends over the last three years and persistent pressure on margins due to high operating expenses relative to cost of revenue ($10.15B). Significant accumulated other comprehensive losses and a large retained earnings deficit suggest underlying balance sheet fragility that could limit flexibility during prolonged downturns in the agricultural sector.
About MOSAIC CO
Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) is a leading global provider of nutrient solutions, fertilizers, and specialty agricultural products serving farmers in North America, Europe, Asia, and Africa. The company leverages its extensive portfolio of phosphate rock reserves to produce essential nutrients like DAP and MAP that support sustainable crop yields worldwide.
Analysis
Management Discussion
Recent financial performance shows a recovery in net income to $575.4M in 2025 following a steep decline from previous years, reflecting sensitivity to fertilizer pricing cycles. While revenue increased slightly year-over-year, the company continues to manage significant cash outflows for capital expenditures ($1.36B) and debt issuances ($904.7M), balancing growth investments with liquidity management.
Industry Overview
The global fertilizer industry is highly cyclical, driven by commodity prices, input costs, and geopolitical factors that disrupt supply chains. Companies like Mosaic compete for limited natural resources while facing increasing environmental scrutiny and the need to transition toward more sustainable production methods to meet regulatory standards.
Financial Statements
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.13B | $13.70B | $11.12B | $12.05B |
| Cost of Revenue | $13.37B | $11.49B | $9.61B | $10.15B |
| Gross Profit | $5.76B | $2.21B | $1.51B | $1.90B |
| Operating Expenses | $970.5M | $872.5M | $890.4M | $1.08B |
| Operating Income | $4.79B | $1.34B | $621.5M | $821.5M |
| G&A | $498.0M | $500.5M | $496.9M | $533.9M |
| Stock-Based Comp | $27.9M | $33.0M | $31.8M | $30.7M |
| D&A | $933.9M | $960.6M | $1.03B | $1.05B |
| Depreciation | $932.1M | $958.9M | $1.01B | $1.02B |
| Amortization | $1.8M | $1.7M | $13.0M | $27.8M |
| Other OpEx | $472.5M | $372.0M | $393.5M | $546.5M |
| Non-Operating Income | $-142.8M | $-12.2M | $-306.1M | $391.4M |
| Interest Expense | $168.8M | $189.0M | $230.0M | $241.5M |
| Pre-Tax Income | $4.64B | $1.33B | $315.4M | $1.21B |
| Income Tax | $1.22B | $177.0M | $186.7M | $639.8M |
| Continuing Ops | $3.42B | $1.15B | $128.7M | $573.1M |
| Discontinued Ops | $196.0M | $60.3M | $73.3M | $2.3M |
| Net Income | $3.61B | $1.21B | $202.0M | $575.4M |
| Minority Interest | $31.4M | $44.3M | $27.1M | $34.7M |
| Net to Common | $3.58B | $1.16B | $174.9M | $540.7M |
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Assets | $6.56B | $4.75B | $4.50B | $5.24B |
| Cash & Equivalents | $735.4M | $348.8M | $272.8M | $276.6M |
| Inventory | $3.54B | $2.52B | $2.55B | $3.36B |
| Other Current Assets | $2.28B | $1.87B | $1.68B | $1.60B |
| Long-Term Assets | $16.83B | $18.29B | $18.43B | $19.24B |
| PP&E (Net) | $12.68B | $13.59B | $13.35B | $13.98B |
| Goodwill | $1.12B | $1.14B | $1.06B | $1.01B |
| Operating Leases | $182.5M | $229.8M | $220.0M | $223.6M |
| Other LT Assets | $1.97B | $2.42B | $2.26B | $2.18B |
| Total Assets | $23.39B | $23.03B | $22.92B | $24.48B |
| Current Liabilities | $5.53B | $3.87B | $4.17B | $3.98B |
| Accounts Payable | $1.29B | $1.17B | $1.16B | $1.17B |
| Current Leases | $50.7M | $65.3M | $43.9M | $59.6M |
| Deferred Revenue | $743.9M | $261.8M | $270.7M | $297.3M |
| Other Current Liab | $1.09B | $530.3M | $906.0M | $905.6M |
| Long-Term Liabilities | $5.66B | $6.73B | $7.14B | $8.26B |
| LT Operating Leases | $135.2M | $168.1M | $181.2M | $166.0M |
| Other LT Liab | $5.52B | $6.56B | $6.96B | $8.10B |
| Total Liabilities | $11.19B | $10.60B | $11.31B | $12.25B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $12.19B | $12.43B | $11.61B | $12.23B |
| Retained Earnings | $14.20B | $14.24B | $13.93B | $14.18B |
| AOCI | $-2.15B | $-1.95B | $-2.45B | $-2.13B |
| Total L&E | $23.39B | $23.03B | $22.92B | $24.48B |
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (CFO) | $3.61B | $1.21B | $202.0M | $575.4M |
| Non-Cash Adjustments | $-765.9M | $3.23B | $342.0M | $107.1M |
| Working Capital Changes | $1.09B | $-2.03B | $755.2M | $142.3M |
| Cash from Operations | $3.94B | $2.41B | $1.30B | $824.8M |
| Capital Expenditures | $1.25B | $1.40B | $1.25B | $1.36B |
| Cash from Investing | $-1.26B | $-1.32B | $-1.26B | $-1.31B |
| Debt Issuances | — | $900.0M | $70.3M | $904.7M |
| Debt Repayments | $610.3M | $995.3M | $67.2M | $73.4M |
| Share Buybacks | $1.67B | $756.0M | $235.4M | $0 |
| Dividends Paid | $197.7M | $351.6M | $270.7M | $280.4M |
| Cash from Financing | $-2.68B | $-1.48B | $-131.9M | $452.0M |
| FX Effect | $-29.7M | $-2.8M | $37.9M | $26.3M |
| Net Change in Cash | $-32.2M | $-393.3M | $-55.8M | $-6.4M |
| Beginning Cash | $786.3M | $754.1M | $360.8M | $305.0M |
| Ending Cash | $754.1M | $360.8M | $305.0M | $298.6M |
Frequently Asked Questions
How does MOSAIC CO make money?
The company's revenue streams are primarily derived from the sale of phosphate-based fertilizers including Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) and Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP), alongside potash and nitrogen products. Additional segments include specialty agricultural products, mineral concentrates, and industrial chemicals derived from its mining operations.
What are the main risks for MOS?
Global agricultural commodity prices can be highly volatile due to weather patterns, geopolitical conflicts, and input costs, directly impacting revenue stability. Regulatory headwinds related to environmental compliance and carbon emissions in key mining regions could increase operational expenses or restrict production capacity. Currency fluctuations in international markets may erode margins on exported products.
What is MOS's competitive advantage?
Mosaic possesses one of the largest reserves of high-grade phosphate rock globally, providing a significant cost advantage and supply security in an industry reliant on scarce natural resources. The company benefits from a mature, optimized production footprint with low-cost operating units and a diversified global distribution network that ensures market access despite regional volatility.
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Not financial advice. All content is for informational purposes only. Data may contain errors. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.