NYSE:CMG
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
Chipotle has generated consistent double-digit growth and returned over $2.4B to shareholders via buybacks while maintaining a massive operating cash flow of $2.11B.
Key Metrics
Investment Thesis
Bull Case
Chipotle offers a compelling growth story with revenue expanding at a healthy rate while generating $2.11B in operating cash flow to fund its massive buyback program. The company's moat remains wide due to its unique supply chain relationships and high customer retention rates in the fast-casual sector.
Bear Case
Investors should be wary of the significant capital intensity, with capex reaching $666.3M and total liabilities at $6.16B against equity of only $2.83B. Additionally, the heavy reliance on share repurchases to boost EPS could become unsustainable if organic growth slows or inflation pressures input costs.
About CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. operates as a restaurant chain serving burrito bowls, tacos, and salads primarily across the United States with a focus on responsibly sourced ingredients. The company's robust financials reflect strong operational leverage with revenue growing from $8.63B in 2022 to $11.93B in 2025.
Analysis
Management Discussion
Management has successfully navigated a period of aggressive growth, evidenced by the 38% revenue increase over three years and a net profit surge from $899.1M to $1.54B. However, the massive cash flow from financing outflow of -$2.47B indicates heavy share repurchases which may limit future dividend capacity or strategic M&A.
Industry Overview
The fast-casual dining industry is currently valued in the trillions and is experiencing a shift toward higher quality ingredients and transparency as consumers demand better health options. Chipotle is well-positioned to capture market share from legacy QSR brands due to its consistent execution and modernized kitchen technology.
Financial Statements
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.63B | $9.87B | $11.31B | $11.93B |
| Cost of Revenue | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Gross Profit | $8.63B | $9.87B | $11.31B | $11.93B |
| Operating Expenses | $7.47B | $8.31B | $9.40B | $9.99B |
| Operating Income | $1.16B | $1.56B | $1.92B | $1.94B |
| G&A | $564.2M | $633.6M | $697.5M | $652.0M |
| Stock-Based Comp | $98.0M | $124.0M | $131.7M | $119.5M |
| D&A | $286.8M | $319.4M | $335.0M | $361.4M |
| Other OpEx | $6.91B | $7.68B | $8.70B | $9.34B |
| Non-Operating Income | $21.1M | $62.7M | $93.9M | $73.7M |
| Pre-Tax Income | $1.18B | $1.62B | $2.01B | $2.01B |
| Income Tax | $282.4M | $391.8M | $476.1M | $473.8M |
| Continuing Ops | $1.18B | $1.62B | $2.01B | $2.01B |
| Discontinued Ops | $-282.4M | $-391.8M | $-476.1M | $-473.8M |
| Net Income | $899.1M | $1.23B | $1.53B | $1.54B |
| Minority Interest | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net to Common | $899.1M | $1.23B | $1.53B | $1.54B |
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Assets | $1.18B | $1.62B | $1.78B | $1.47B |
| Cash & Equivalents | $384.0M | $560.6M | $748.5M | $350.5M |
| Marketable Securities | $515.1M | $734.8M | $674.4M | $698.6M |
| Accounts Receivable | $106.9M | $115.5M | $144.0M | $156.5M |
| Inventory | $35.7M | $39.3M | $48.9M | $49.5M |
| Prepaid Expenses | $86.4M | $117.5M | $97.5M | $120.5M |
| Other Current Assets | $47.7M | $53.0M | $67.2M | $91.4M |
| Long-Term Assets | $5.75B | $6.42B | $7.42B | $7.53B |
| PP&E (Net) | $1.95B | $2.17B | $2.39B | $2.68B |
| Goodwill | $21.9M | $21.9M | $21.9M | $21.9M |
| Operating Leases | $3.30B | $3.58B | $4.00B | $4.46B |
| LT Investments | $388.1M | $564.5M | $868.0M | $197.1M |
| Other LT Assets | $76.4M | $79.7M | $115.5M | $137.9M |
| Total Assets | $6.93B | $8.04B | $9.20B | $8.99B |
| Current Liabilities | $921.9M | $1.03B | $1.17B | $1.19B |
| Accounts Payable | $184.6M | $197.6M | $210.7M | $212.8M |
| Current Leases | $236.2M | $248.1M | $277.8M | $302.4M |
| Deferred Revenue | — | — | $238.6M | $240.4M |
| Other Current Liab | $353.5M | $437.2M | $261.9M | $250.1M |
| Long-Term Liabilities | $3.64B | $3.95B | $4.38B | $4.98B |
| LT Operating Leases | $3.50B | $3.80B | $4.26B | $4.77B |
| Other LT Liab | $142.4M | $148.0M | $117.3M | $202.3M |
| Total Liabilities | $4.56B | $4.98B | $5.55B | $6.16B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $2.37B | $3.06B | $3.66B | $2.83B |
| Retained Earnings | $4.83B | $6.06B | $1.57B | $619.9M |
| AOCI | $-7.9M | $-6.7M | $-10.3M | $-7.3M |
| Treasury Stock | $4.28B | $4.94B | — | — |
| Total L&E | $6.93B | $8.04B | $9.20B | $8.99B |
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (CFO) | $899.1M | $1.23B | $1.53B | $1.54B |
| Non-Cash Adjustments | $308.4M | $613.9M | $635.7M | $803.8M |
| Working Capital Changes | $115.6M | $-59.2M | $-64.7M | $-225.6M |
| Cash from Operations | $1.32B | $1.78B | $2.11B | $2.11B |
| Capital Expenditures | $479.2M | $560.7M | $593.6M | $666.3M |
| Cash from Investing | $-830.0M | $-946.0M | $-837.5M | $-35.1M |
| Share Buybacks | $830.1M | $592.3M | $1.00B | $2.43B |
| Cash from Financing | $-929.4M | $-660.7M | $-1.07B | $-2.47B |
| FX Effect | $-1.0M | $381.0K | $-1.6M | $-416.0K |
| Net Change in Cash | $-437.3M | $177.2M | $192.2M | $-392.5M |
| Beginning Cash | $846.2M | $409.0M | $586.2M | $778.4M |
| Ending Cash | $409.0M | $586.2M | $778.4M | $385.9M |
Frequently Asked Questions
How does CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC make money?
Dining Out (primary restaurant revenue), Catering, and Licensed Locations (likely included in total revenue given the scale). The financials show high gross profit margins typical of a fast-casual model with significant fixed cost leverage.
What are the main risks for CMG?
Supply chain volatility for key ingredients like pork and chicken, potential regulatory changes regarding food safety standards, and the risk of rapid expansion eroding brand quality or increasing capital expenditures beyond the recent $666M level.
What is CMG's competitive advantage?
Strong brand loyalty driven by its 'food with integrity' mission, superior same-store sales growth compared to peers, and an extensive network of over 3,000 locations providing massive operating leverage.
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Not financial advice. All content is for informational purposes only. Data may contain errors. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.