NYSE:BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
A US-based AI software company delivering predictive analytics solutions to critical infrastructure and industrial markets.
Key Metrics
Investment Thesis
Bull Case
The company operates in a high-growth AI sector with substantial market potential within critical infrastructure where predictive analytics are becoming essential; strong balance sheet liquidity of $92.6M and access to capital via share issuances provides runway to execute its strategic vision; long-term contracts and deep industry integration may eventually unlock scalable profitability as the AI platform matures.
Bear Case
Persistent and widening net losses over the last four years suggest fundamental business model challenges that have not yet been resolved by growth; aggressive reliance on equity financing to cover cash burn indicates an inability to generate sufficient operating cash flow from current operations; large accumulated goodwill of $241.1M poses a significant impairment risk if acquisition synergies fail to materialize as planned.
About BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is a leading AI analytics platform serving critical infrastructure sectors including energy, utilities, transportation, and manufacturing. The company provides predictive analytics solutions designed to prevent equipment failure and optimize operations for industrial clients.
Analysis
Management Discussion
Despite a slight year-over-year revenue decline from $158.2M to $127.7M, the company continues to report substantial net losses of approximately $294M, consistent with recent trends of deepening deficits in 2023 and 2024. The negative cash flow from operations of $42M is partially offset by significant financing inflows of $691.3M driven largely by share issuances, highlighting the capital markets' reliance on equity to fund operations rather than organic profitability.
Industry Overview
The industrial AI and predictive analytics market is expanding rapidly as manufacturers seek to modernize aging infrastructure and reduce operational costs through data-driven decision-making. Competition is intensifying from both established enterprise software giants and specialized AI startups, driving pressure on margins and requiring continuous innovation to maintain client retention.
Financial Statements
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $155.0M | $155.2M | $158.2M | $127.7M |
| Cost of Revenue | $112.0M | $114.6M | $113.0M | $99.2M |
| Gross Profit | $43.0M | $40.6M | $45.2M | $28.5M |
| Operating Expenses | $153.5M | $79.6M | $178.6M | $242.4M |
| Operating Income | $-110.5M | $-39.0M | $-133.4M | $-213.9M |
| R&D | $8.4M | $5.0M | — | $16.8M |
| G&A | $84.8M | $71.1M | $80.0M | $95.1M |
| Stock-Based Comp | $10.9M | $18.7M | $21.1M | $23.3M |
| D&A | $7.8M | $7.9M | $11.9M | $15.3M |
| Depreciation | $497.0K | $428.0K | $540.0K | $534.0K |
| Amortization | $7.3M | $7.5M | $11.3M | $14.7M |
| Other OpEx | $60.4M | $3.5M | $98.6M | $130.5M |
| Non-Operating Income | $-12.9M | $-21.2M | $-162.4M | $-101.7M |
| Interest Expense | $14.4M | — | — | — |
| Pre-Tax Income | $-123.4M | $-60.3M | $-295.8M | $-315.6M |
| Income Tax | $-1.7M | $101.0K | $-256.0K | $-21.7M |
| Continuing Ops | $-121.7M | $-60.4M | $-295.5M | $-293.9M |
| Discontinued Ops | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net Income | $-121.7M | $-60.4M | $-295.5M | $-293.9M |
| Minority Interest | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net to Common | $-121.7M | $-60.4M | $-295.5M | $-293.9M |
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Assets | $54.3M | $63.8M | $93.8M | $330.5M |
| Cash & Equivalents | $12.6M | $32.6M | $50.1M | $87.1M |
| Accounts Receivable | $30.1M | $21.9M | $39.0M | $22.7M |
| Prepaid Expenses | $10.3M | $4.4M | $3.8M | $14.5M |
| Other Current Assets | $1.3M | $4.8M | $895.0K | $206.2M |
| Long-Term Assets | $141.0M | $136.1M | $250.0M | $564.0M |
| PP&E (Net) | $1.4M | $997.0K | $1.6M | $1.6M |
| Intangibles | $85.7M | $82.0M | $119.1M | $139.5M |
| Goodwill | $48.7M | $48.7M | $119.1M | $241.1M |
| Operating Leases | $4.6M | $4.0M | $9.3M | $7.1M |
| Other LT Assets | $534.0K | $372.0K | $990.0K | $174.8M |
| Total Assets | $195.3M | $199.9M | $343.8M | $894.5M |
| Current Liabilities | $35.8M | $68.6M | $203.0M | $185.5M |
| Accounts Payable | $15.4M | $11.0M | $8.5M | $6.1M |
| Current Debt | $2.1M | $1.2M | $818.0K | $16.6M |
| Current Leases | $806.0K | $779.0K | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| Deferred Revenue | $2.0M | $879.0K | $2.5M | $14.8M |
| Other Current Liab | $2.1M | $38.5M | $170.6M | $127.4M |
| Long-Term Liabilities | $197.4M | $198.6M | $144.5M | $97.2M |
| Long-Term Debt | $192.3M | $194.3M | $135.4M | $90.5M |
| LT Operating Leases | $5.1M | $4.3M | $9.1M | $6.7M |
| Other LT Liab | $10.0K | $37.0K | $0 | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $233.2M | $267.2M | $347.5M | $282.7M |
| Shareholders' Equity | $-37.9M | $-67.3M | $-3.7M | $611.9M |
| Retained Earnings | $-253.1M | $-313.4M | $-571.6M | $-865.6M |
| AOCI | — | — | $121.0K | $-63.0K |
| Total L&E | $195.3M | $199.9M | $343.8M | $894.5M |
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (CFO) | $-121.7M | $-60.4M | $-295.5M | $-293.9M |
| Non-Cash Adjustments | $66.7M | $56.0M | $259.5M | $262.1M |
| Working Capital Changes | $6.1M | $-14.0M | $-2.0M | $-10.1M |
| Cash from Operations | $-48.9M | $-18.3M | $-38.1M | $-42.0M |
| Capital Expenditures | $769.0K | $2.0K | $484.0K | $525.0K |
| Cash from Investing | $-5.2M | $-3.8M | $2.8M | $-606.7M |
| Share Buybacks | $100.9M | $0 | $0 | — |
| Cash from Financing | $-103.1M | $42.1M | $52.5M | $691.3M |
| FX Effect | $0 | $0 | $424.0K | $-174.0K |
| Net Change in Cash | $-157.3M | $19.9M | $17.6M | $42.5M |
| Beginning Cash | $169.9M | $12.6M | $32.6M | $50.1M |
| Ending Cash | $12.6M | $32.6M | $50.1M | $92.6M |
Frequently Asked Questions
How does BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. make money?
Revenue is primarily derived from selling proprietary AI-powered analytics platforms that integrate with existing enterprise systems, alongside professional services such as system integration, implementation, and ongoing support contracts for large-scale industrial deployments.
What are the main risks for BBAI?
Significant recurring operating losses indicate a challenging path to profitability despite growing revenues; heavy reliance on large-scale acquisitions for growth exposes the company to integration failures and goodwill impairment risks; high cash burn rates coupled with substantial share issuances dilute existing shareholders and raise concerns about capital efficiency; sensitivity to economic downturns in industrial sectors could impact project delays or contract cancellations.
What is BBAI's competitive advantage?
Deep domain expertise in high-stakes industries like energy and transportation creates significant switching costs; a robust portfolio of proprietary algorithms trained on diverse operational data sets offers defensible intellectual property barriers; strong relationships with major enterprise clients ensure recurring revenue streams through maintenance and upgrade cycles.
Related Companies
Not financial advice. All content is for informational purposes only. Data may contain errors. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.