Nasdaq:ADSK
Autodesk, Inc.
Autodesk dominates the professional design software market with a powerful SaaS transition driving recurring revenue growth and high customer retention rates.
Key Metrics
Investment Thesis
Bull Case
Investors should consider Autodesk for its dominant market position and proven ability to monetize AI technologies through premium product upgrades. The recurring revenue model provides predictable cash flows, while the massive deferred revenue base acts as a safety net during economic volatility.
Bear Case
The stock carries valuation pressure from high operating expenses relative to profit margins, with general and administrative costs at $693M and marketing at $2.37B consuming significant resources. Significant cash outflows for investing activities of $451M and financing of $1.36B suggest ongoing capital intensity that may weigh on near-term free cash flow conversion.
About Autodesk, Inc.
Autodesk Inc. is a global leader in design and entertainment software, providing comprehensive digital platforms for architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media industries. The company generates revenue primarily through subscription-based licensing of its flagship products like AutoCAD, Revit, and Maya, serving professional users and educational institutions worldwide.
Analysis
Management Discussion
Autodesk demonstrated robust financial health with net profit reaching $1.12B, supported by strong operating cash flow of $2.45B and a healthy balance sheet holding $2.25B in cash. The company successfully executed its SaaS strategy, evidenced by the substantial current deferred revenue of $4.41B which indicates strong future booking visibility despite elevated marketing expenses of $2.37B.
Industry Overview
The professional software industry is undergoing a rapid digital transformation where cloud-native solutions are challenging traditional legacy vendors. Success depends on integrating AI capabilities to automate complex design workflows, creating a high barrier to entry for new entrants but intensifying competition for existing players.
Financial Statements
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.00B | $5.50B | $6.13B | $7.21B |
| Cost of Revenue | $480.0M | $511.0M | $578.0M | $650.0M |
| Gross Profit | $4.53B | $4.99B | $5.55B | $6.56B |
| Operating Expenses | $3.54B | $3.86B | $4.20B | $4.98B |
| Operating Income | $989.0M | $1.13B | $1.35B | $1.58B |
| R&D | $1.22B | $1.37B | $1.49B | $1.64B |
| G&A | $532.0M | $620.0M | $650.0M | $693.0M |
| Marketing | $1.75B | $1.82B | $2.00B | $2.37B |
| Stock-Based Comp | $657.0M | $703.0M | $683.0M | $788.0M |
| D&A | $150.0M | $139.0M | $180.0M | $195.0M |
| Depreciation | $50.0M | $47.0M | $43.0M | $43.0M |
| Amortization | $40.0M | $42.0M | $49.0M | $53.0M |
| Other OpEx | $40.0M | $42.0M | $64.0M | $269.0M |
| Non-Operating Income | $-43.0M | $8.0M | $30.0M | $25.0M |
| Interest Expense | — | — | $71.0M | $80.0M |
| Pre-Tax Income | $946.0M | $1.14B | $1.38B | $1.60B |
| Income Tax | $123.0M | $230.0M | $272.0M | $479.0M |
| Continuing Ops | $823.0M | $906.0M | $1.11B | $1.12B |
| Discontinued Ops | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net Income | $823.0M | $906.0M | $1.11B | $1.12B |
| Minority Interest | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net to Common | $823.0M | $906.0M | $1.11B | $1.12B |
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Assets | $3.34B | $3.58B | $3.48B | $4.94B |
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.95B | $1.89B | $1.60B | $2.25B |
| Marketable Securities | $125.0M | $354.0M | $287.0M | $348.0M |
| Accounts Receivable | $961.0M | $876.0M | $1.01B | $1.44B |
| Prepaid Expenses | $308.0M | $457.0M | $588.0M | $906.0M |
| Other Current Assets | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Long-Term Assets | $6.10B | $6.33B | $7.35B | $7.53B |
| PP&E (Net) | $144.0M | $121.0M | $117.0M | $121.0M |
| Intangibles | $407.0M | $406.0M | $574.0M | $467.0M |
| Goodwill | $3.62B | $3.65B | $4.24B | $4.29B |
| Operating Leases | $245.0M | $224.0M | $169.0M | $157.0M |
| LT Securities | $102.0M | $234.0M | $267.0M | $376.0M |
| Other LT Assets | $1.57B | $1.70B | $1.98B | $2.11B |
| Total Assets | $9.44B | $9.91B | $10.83B | $12.47B |
| Current Liabilities | $4.00B | $4.35B | $5.15B | $5.81B |
| Accounts Payable | $102.0M | $100.0M | $242.0M | $422.0M |
| Current Leases | $85.0M | $67.0M | $58.0M | $52.0M |
| Deferred Revenue | $3.20B | $3.50B | $3.79B | $4.41B |
| Taxes Payable | $33.0M | $36.0M | $62.0M | $54.0M |
| Other Current Liab | $577.0M | $648.0M | $1.00B | $874.0M |
| Long-Term Liabilities | $4.29B | $3.71B | $3.06B | $3.61B |
| LT Operating Leases | $300.0M | $275.0M | $214.0M | $199.0M |
| Other LT Liab | $2.45B | $2.50B | $2.31B | $2.95B |
| Total Liabilities | $8.29B | $8.06B | $8.21B | $9.42B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $1.15B | $1.85B | $2.62B | $3.04B |
| Paid-In Capital | $3.33B | $3.80B | $4.24B | $4.71B |
| Retained Earnings | $-2.00B | $-1.71B | $-1.33B | $-1.43B |
| AOCI | $-185.0M | $-234.0M | $-285.0M | $-232.0M |
| Total L&E | $9.44B | $9.91B | $10.83B | $12.47B |
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (CFO) | $823.0M | $906.0M | $1.11B | $1.12B |
| Non-Cash Adjustments | $-221.0M | $650.0M | $-408.0M | $-834.0M |
| Working Capital Changes | $1.47B | $-243.0M | $903.0M | $2.16B |
| Cash from Operations | $2.07B | $1.31B | $1.61B | $2.45B |
| Capital Expenditures | $40.0M | $31.0M | $40.0M | $43.0M |
| Cash from Investing | $-143.0M | $-502.0M | $-903.0M | $-451.0M |
| Debt Issuances | $0 | $0 | — | $499.0M |
| Share Buybacks | $1.10B | $795.0M | $852.0M | $1.40B |
| Dividends Paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | — |
| Cash from Financing | $-1.49B | $-852.0M | $-987.0M | $-1.36B |
| FX Effect | $-22.0M | $-14.0M | $-10.0M | $10.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | $419.0M | $-55.0M | $-293.0M | $650.0M |
| Beginning Cash | $1.53B | $1.95B | $1.89B | $1.60B |
| Ending Cash | $1.95B | $1.89B | $1.60B | $2.25B |
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Autodesk, Inc. make money?
Revenue is driven by Design Automation (professional CAD/BIM tools), Media and Entertainment (3D content creation for film/games), Construction (project management and visualization), and Education & Government. The financial data highlights strong subscription economics with significant deferred revenue buffers supporting future cash flows.
What are the main risks for ADSK?
Intense competition from emerging cloud-native CAD competitors and open-source alternatives could erode market share. Rapid technological shifts in generative AI require continuous heavy R&D investment to maintain relevance. Economic downturns in construction and manufacturing sectors may delay enterprise software renewals or prompt budget cuts.
What is ADSK's competitive advantage?
Autodesk possesses a deep moat through high switching costs embedded in its integrated product suites, massive network effects within the architectural and engineering communities, and extensive ecosystem of third-party developers building on its platform APIs.
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Not financial advice. All content is for informational purposes only. Data may contain errors. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.